Phoenix Area Real Estate Blog

This week’s update occurs on Mother’s Day.  We certainly hope every mom had a great Mother’s Day.  Judging by the numbers, there are probably a few happy moms in Maricopa County right now, as all of the numbers show the current trend toward a generally positive direction. 

There are 38,432 single family homes for sale, down by 87 from last week. There are 5293 sales currently pending, up by 269 from last week. And 3845 homes closed escrow in the last 30 days, up by 191 from last week.  Broader Maricopa County has almost exactly 10 months of inventory, based on this weeks numbers. The following are the 10 city-by-city breakdowns I am following:

*All data comes via ARMLS, and is presumed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. All numbers represent single family detached homes only. Condos, townhouses, timeshares, vacant land lots, and manufactured homes are not represented in these numbers. All sold properties were sold in the last 30 days.

All trend indicators are relative to the previous week’s update:

Positive move upward Positive move downward

Negative move downward Negative move upward

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In Maricopa County, there are 38,519  single family homes for sale, down by 780 from last week.  There are 5024 sales currently pending, down by 170 from last week.  And 3654 homes closed escrow in the last 30 days, up by 66 from last week. The following are the 10 city-by-city breakdowns I am following.

Editor’s Note:  Clearly something is wrong with the numbers for Mesa and Chandler from last week.  My best guess is that last week’s number for those 2 cities included all housing types, not just single family homes.

*All data comes via ARMLS, and is presumed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. All numbers represent single family detached homes only. Condos, townhouses, timeshares, vacant land lots, and manufactured homes are not represented in these numbers. All sold properties were sold in the last 30 days.

All trend indicators are relative to the previous week’s update:

  Positive move upward

  Positive move downward

  Negative move downward

   Negative move upward

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That’s right, I’m going straight to the point.  This is real estate transparency at it’s clearest.  I want to win an iPhone, and I need your help to do it.  In January I wrote that I needed a smart phone, and I’ve held off the purchase for various unknown reasons, so the need still exists.  Today, the reason revealed itself (the universe works in mysterious ways).

Here’s all you need to do to help me win.  Click on the new Property Qube link there below my ugly mug on the left sidebar.  If you are reading this in a feed reader, here’s the button and link I’m referring to:

After you click that, I’m asking you to join Property Qube and connect to my network.  It’s free.  It won’t hurt.  No one is going to come and bother you in the future.  The person (agent or otherwise) that can get the most connections in the month of May will win an iPhone.  I want to be that person.

Ok, you may be thinking to yourself, I like Steve a bit, but what good is this Property Qube thing anyway?  Why bother joining?

Here’s what Property Qube is:  It’s a social networking website that’s seeking to help buyers and sellers connect with each other and real estate agents in mutually beneficial ways.  Naturally, that means you can find listings of homes for sale or for rent on Property Qube.  They’ve also got a pretty cool Q&A section where you can ask a question and get an answer.  Plus they have social groups.  Create a group of indy coffee drinkers from Amarillo, Texas and invite your friends to hang out on Property Qube and chat real estate (or coffee) if you like.  Wanna create a blog about your home buyer, selling, or remodeling experience and have it seen by like-minded people?  Property Qube would be good spot.  If you already have a blog that’s real estate related, you can have your posts syndicated (in a Google friendly way) to Property Qube to garner extra visibility.

Having been at Property Qube since near its inception, what I like about Property Qube is the environment is pretty relaxed.  Unlike similar sites, the agents helping folks on Property Qube are doing so to help first.  There isn’t a competition based system that encourages agents to answer each and every question asked.  This leads to fewer answers, admittedly, but from what I’ve seen, it also leads to better answers.  For agents looking for a more relaxed environment to offer their services within, Property Qube is a place worth considering.  Likewise, for non-agents looking for a place to discuss real estate in an non-competitive environment, Property Qube is well worth considering.

Have I convinced you it’s worth a try?  I sure hope so.  If I have, click on the link and join my network.  I can’t promise to make you rich or save you millions, but I will promise to graciously thank each and every person that joins my network for helping me win.

It wasn’t very long ago, when the best way to find a tenant for a rental home was to place a sign in the yard, and an ad in the newspaper. It wasn’t a great way to find a tenant, it was simply the best way. Using MLS has always been marginally effective, primarily because the compensation offered via co-brokerage makes it barely worth the cost of gas to the agent to tour around 5 or 10 rental homes. That’s a sad statement, but if the financials aren’t driving your business, what does?

A few years ago, craigslist burst onto the scene. I remember the first time I heard about craigslist. I had just sold a client a new home in North Phoenix, and she was hoping to find a roommate. She mentioned craigslist to me as something that folks in California were using.

Fast forward to today and my own marketing plan for managing homes for rent. Without a doubt, craigslist is the #1 most effective tool for me in finding a tenant to rent a home. My statistics in that regard tell me that 60% of all inquiries about a home for rent come from someone seeing my ads on craigslist, but over 90% of all tenants I have placed, were the direct result of craigslist. Let me repeat that: 90% of all tenants I have placed, found out about the home on craigslist.

Other than craigslist, I have co-broked a rental listing via MLS 1 time. That could have been avoided, but the terms of the co-broked tenant were too good to pass up. I have rented a home via the sign in the yard a couple of times. Every other time, the source of the successful lead was from craigslist.

Why does craigslist work?

I believe it works, because that’s where the majority of the inventory for rental homes in the greater Phoenix area is located. If you are looking for a rental home, you’ll find a very high percentage of all of the rental inventory in craigslist. People searching for a home for rent are going to search at the one place where they think they can find most, if not all, of the inventory. And inventory is king. Like content for a web site, inventory is paramount to a home listing source. The majority of the rental searching public has learned they can find homes on craigslist, so they search there.

To enhance my rental listings from the majority on craigslist, I use PostLets.com to create a virtual flyer, which I use as the ad on craigslist. That virtual flyer gets syndicated to other listing sites, like Google Base, HotPads, Trulia, etc., but I rarely get a response from those sites. On the rare occasions I do get a response, the home was rented long ago. The virtual flyer I make looks something like this when seen on craigslist:

While the typical “good” craigslist ad looks like this:

Which ad catches your eye better? Which do you think will get better results? There are a few people that will be put off by the commercialism of my ads, but overall, my response rate is too compelling for me to consider changing.

WordPress Statistics

The other thing I do in my craigslist ads, to gauge their effectiveness, is provide a link to my blog similar to:

Each time someone clicks I learn two things. 1) the person was interested enough by the craigslist ad, they wanted more info. 2) today, we had XYZ interested people.

Thanks to WordPress stats, I know exactly how many people click through to the blog:

If I’m not getting click throughs, the likely answer is the home is priced too high for the area, and thus there isn’t much interest in the home. Rental prices are extremely narrow in the precision with which we need to price them. It can be the case that being too high by $25/month can cause a rental listing to languish.

Craigslist just plain works in Phoenix. It may not work in every part of the US, but at least here, it’s hyper effective. I won’t go so far as to stop using a sign or stop using MLS, but for the foreseeable future, I’ll continue to use craigslist with each and every rental listing.

Starting today, Sunday, April 27, 2008 I will be doing a Maricopa County market update each Sunday for the indefinite future.  I will be doing these updates for the 10 cities in Maricopa County that I do the vast majority of my business.  (You’ll notice a predominantly NE Phoenix area focus).  For this first week, I’m not going to provide any historical information, but in subsequent weeks, I’ll provide historical trending indicators.

A few disclaimers to get things rolling, of course.  All data comes via ARMLS, and is presumed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed.  All numbers represent only single family detached homes.  Condos, townhouses, timeshares, vacant land lots, and manufactured homes are not represented in these numbers.

In Maricopa County, there are 39,299 single family homes for sale, 5194 sales are currently pending, and 3588 homes close escrow in the last 30 days.

The following are the city-by-city breakdowns:

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One promise I make my clients who list their home for sale with me, is that I will gather feedback and share it with them.  As a recipient of all types of feedback requests, I know what I like, and what I don’t like.  For example, I’ve yet to meet an email feedback request that I like.  I could go on and on about all of the misuses of email, but feedback, honestly, has to be near the top of that list for me.  They always seem to ask the wrong questions, and are so impersonal, I can’t see how they provide legitimate value the majority of the time.  Instead, I prefer to have a discussion over the phone, rather than a one way dialogue in email or on a web form.

That was the best feedback I’ve received in years.

That’s what Jaime Honigman in my office told me after she finished getting feedback from me on a showing for one of her listings in Desert Ridge on Friday.  Admittedly, providing feedback to an agent in your own office, versus a faceless agent you’ve never met in person, is likely to result in a better exchange of information.  However, I doubt I would respond differently to anyone else, as long as the discussion doesn’t move in a direction that detracts from my fiduciary obligations to my client.

For this particular showing, my clients spent nearly an hour in the home.  They were interested, they knew the area, they had a number of questions, and they provided me with feedback that I could pass along.  Sometimes I get a nugget or two to pass along, while other times all I really get is, “we didn’t like it.”

During any feedback request, price will invariably be a topic.  The typical question is, “What do you think of the price?”  The typical answer is, “My client’s think it is too high.”  As a buyer’s agent, if you answer anything other than that, you are probably not serving your client’s best interest.  Knowing this, I don’t like the typical question.

Instead, I beat Jaime to the question and asked, “How did you establish your list price?”  I believe this is a far better angle to approach the subject.  Jaime highlighted comparable properties, and how the seller’s decision to price the home was based on those specific comparables.  What a perfect answer.

Property condition should always be a discussion topic when asking for feedback, so we discussed the upgrades in the home versus other homes in the area, which are this home’s #1 selling point.  We also discussed the carpet.  This particular home has dirty carpet.  When a buyer sees dirty carpet they will naturally assume an attempt to clean the carpet has failed, and that it won’t come clean and thus needs to be replaced.  If a seller hasn’t attempted to clean their carpet before the home is listed, they are making a mistake that could cost them thousands instead of hundreds.

Another topic that should be discussed when gathering feedback surrounds convenience.  Showings need to be as convenient as possible, so if any aspect of getting into the home wasn’t convenient, we want to know about it.  Was the lockbox difficult to find?  Was the door difficult to open?  Were the pets in the property trouble-some?  What can be done to make future showings more convenient, if this one wasn’t.

And finally, I always seek to answer any questions the buyer’s may have that aren’t answered in the listing or aren’t obvious when viewing the property.  In this case, the HOA fee wasn’t noted in the listing and was something my clients asked about. I know Desert Ridge has an inexpensive HOA, but I couldn’t remember the exact fee off the top of my head.

Earth day was a few days back. It came and went with little fanfare at my household. That was unfortunate. It came and went with absolutely no fanfare here on the blog. That was a mistake.

Acknowledging this error, I’ll simply draw your attention to a few of the greener posts from the past:

APS encourages Phoenix home owners to go greener

Ladies and Gentleman start your showers

Perfect REALTOR’s car? Lexus LS 600h L

Looking ahead, I’ll be researching solar energy for residential homes, and the rebates that SRP and APS are offering. I’ve been on the lookout for anyone that is going through the process of installing a solar electric system, so that I could monitor the process. Unfortunately, such a situation hasn’t fallen in my lap yet. Therefore, I’m making a call to any readers, if you are considering a solar electric system, or have already installed a solar electric system, I’d love to chat!

The tenant for my rental listing at 28820 N Nobel Rd in Dynamite Mountain Ranch was moving in yesterday, when I spotted this stamp in the concrete in front of the garage. The homes in Dynamite Mountain Ranch were built by DR Horton, in an area of Phoenix that has been identified as having potentially expansive soils. Expansive soils grow, or heave up beneath the home when they absorb water, and as a result, DR Horton chose to build the homes with post tension slabs. So, what are post tension slabs?

The slab foundation is the primary foundation of choice for builders in the Phoenix area, considering we don’t have much in the way of natural disasters, freezing weather, and a relatively shallow sewer table. Footings are dug along the perimeter and other load bearing points of the slab, to anchor the slab in place, and then the slab is poured over a prepared bed of crushed stone, with a network of rebar that keeps the slab together during warming and cooling cycles. The thickness of the footings may vary, depending on the structural needs of the home. Well engineered slab foundations are designed to crack at certain points, which need to be noted by tile installers, so that minor movement at this crack doesn’t break the tile above. If you are walking your home during construction and see cracks in the slab, these will likely be considered normal, so long as the crack isn’t wider than 1/4″.

A Post Tension Slab is installed similarly, except with regard to the rebar that networks its way through the slab. For a post-tension slab, the rebar is placed under very high tension as the concrete is drying. The result, is a very, very strong slab that rarely, if ever, will crack. If you are looking for the most termite proof slab, this is it. Termites often make their way into the home, through the designed internal cracks in your slab.

When I said very high tension, I wasn’t kidding. The reason a post tension slab has this stamp on it, is to alert everyone of the extreme danger of ever drilling into the concrete. For example, if you need to repair a plumbing or gas line that is within or below the slab. Or perhaps you wish to remodel a bathroom and move the location of a drain. This type of change in a post tension slab home needs to be done by a trained professional. If the rebar that is under tension is cut, it will snap like a rubber band pulled too tight, and when it does, the result will be potentially disastrous for the person that cut it. Death would not be unlikely. Serious injury is very likely.

If you are new to the Phoenix area, and are curious about this stamp in the concrete, typically near the front of the garage, hopefully this have been of some help.

My client selected a home in Queen Creek after looking at more than 20 homes in person, and over 150 homes via her Client Gateway that I set up in ARMLS.  Actually, looking at 20 homes wasn’t too challenging.  Every one of them was vacant, so they were typically easy to view, if I didn’t get us lost driving (something I avoided fairly successfull).  Overall, the first day we looked at the best quality homes.  We expanded our search on subsequent trips, with lesser and lesser success. The first day was also the day she found the home of her dreams.  That turned out to be my listing at 10684 East Verbina Ln.  An agreed upon price of $150,000 didn’t hurt, along with the condition and size of the home.  On top of that, were the amenities offered at Magma Ranch.  Most notably the community pool, which is lightly used, unlike Johnson Ranch. 

To be honest, I tried hard to sell someone else’s listing, as dual-agency isn’t my preferred mode of agency.  At the outset I felt confident we could find a home for $110k-$120k that would be at least a suitable substitute, but the condition and price of the home on Verbina apparently spoke volumes.

Along the way, I discovered one critical field that is missing from the MLS Profile, particularly as it relates to banked owned property.  I hope Michael Wurzer is listening, and maybe he can incorporate this into FlexMLS (assuming it isn’t already).  That field is:  Nasty Smell.  There were 3 homes I entered that nearly made me nauseous.  Another, may have a problem on the living room floor from my client.  The fridge was opened, and she nearly gagged on sight.  I think she was able to control herself, but we can’t be sure.  It was simply one of the most disgusting sights I’ve ever witnessed in a home for sale.  In comparison, a nasty, green, slimy pool would be a viewing pleasure (I hope you aren’t reading this with a sammich in your hands).

Another field that is worth considering:  Blood stained carpet.  I can’t be sure that’s what the reddish brown staining we witnessed on one home’s carpet was, as I’m not a forensic scientist, but whatever it was, it gave cause for concern about what had happened in the home prior to the foreclosure.

Perhaps the new field would simply be: Preview Required.  My client currently lives in North Scottsdale as do I, so she very well understood it was a long way to Queen Creek, and thus forgave me the courtesy of previewing the listings.  But if there’s something in the home that will scare, nauseate, or potentially alarm the buyer, buyer’s agents need to know.  As a professional courtesy, please, give us a heads up.

And one final comment regarding the foreclosed properties I showed in Queen Creek.  90% of them were on a non-MLS lockbox.  The code for 50% of those was identical, even though they were not listed by the same broker or agent.  It seems to be the code of choice for the area’s foreclosed homes.  Of the 10% of homes on an ARMLS lockbox, none of the listing agents have subsequently called me for feedback.  Personally, that’s not a problem, as providing feedback can be challenging when you’ve viewed a number of homes, but none of the listing agents cared about feedback?

I don’t post often on Saturdays, but this seems like a good time to acknowledge that Dru Bloomfield roped me into being a panelist at the upcoming Scottsdale Area Association of Realtors Technology Symposium.  Jay Thompson, Dru, and myself will be hosted by Kevin Garner, Managing Director of the NAR’s Center for Realtor Technology, answering questions from the audience about real estate blogging.

You can still sign up for $25 if you do so before Friday.  If you show up on Friday, it’s $30 at the door.

Not only will there be a break-out session for blogging, there’s a session on FlexMLS, Lead Generation Systems, and Getting started with a web site.

Where & When:

April 25, 8:00am – 12:30pm
Chaparral Suites Ballroom
5001 N. Scottsdale Road, Scottsdale, AZ

Keith Garner has also authorized us to organize a meet-and-greet breakfast of Phoenix Area Real Estate bloggers Saturday, April 26.  Comment here or contact Jay or I for details.  Naturally, space is somewhat limited for breakfast.