Phoenix ranks as the 5th largest city in the nation by population with over 1.5 million people. The greater Phoenix area, including Mesa and Scottsdale accounts for over 4 million people, which ranks 13th among major metropolitans. Phoenix covers over 515 sq miles of land, making it also 5th largest in the nation by land area. As state capitals go, Phoenix is the largest state capital in the nation.
But as large as Phoenix is now, consider this: In the next 20 years, experts believe that the greater Phoenix population will DOUBLE. That’s right. 8 million people. Over 100,000 people are moving to Phoenix every year, or something like 10,000 people a month. Everything you see today will have to be built again in just 20 years. The west side of the White Tank Mountains will look like the east side does today (hopefully without as many for sale signs). Goodyear will be like today’s Gilbert. Queen Creek and Florence will run together in a continuous row of houses. Surprise will similarly connect to Wickenburg. Building restrictions on how close you can build to the Palo Verde Nuclear Power Plant will be at issue.
We are living in a dynamic time in a dynamic city. Issues over assured water supply and power shortages are sure to arise. Conservation will certainly become a necessity. The traffic challenges we face today will pale in comparison to our future.
To make this influx of population possible, the Phoenix area needs a housing unit for every 2.5 people that move here. That equates to needing more than 45,000 housing units every year in Phoenix. There are over 47,000 single family homes, along with nearly 10,000 condos, patio homes, lofts, etc. for sale in MLS right now. Apartments and rental properties will make up the majority of what new resident’s seek, while at a similar pace, existing tenants move into homes. This continues to suggest that the current buyer’s market will continue at least for another year. However, because investors have significantly slowed their buying, and builders are also slowing their speculation, there is definitely a strong ray of light at the end of the housing bubble tunnel.
I’m excited about the future of Phoenix. I’m excited about the future of real estate in Phoenix. And I’m anxiously optimistic that the DBacks will win this nail-biter.
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Steve, great post. I’m constantly trying to remind my clients that Phoenix’s long term growth potential will help ease any short term bumps we’re experiencing now. Your post got me thinking (never a reliable thing) and I posted some thoughts on my blog. I’m half a techno dweeb but can’t get my pingback to work. Thought I’d mosey over and tell you about my post. Heather
Heather- Sorry about your pingback not working. I’m subscribed to your blog, and saw with glee you had referred to me. I don’t know how or why my pingback works. I just know that it works. Thanks!
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