Phoenix Real Estate Market Update - #31 | Phoenix Area Real Estate Blog

I want to start off with the numbers today, then dig in a tiny bit deeper afterward. Across all of Maricopa County, there are currently 24,321 single family homes for sale, down by 981 from a week ago. There are 10,806 sales currently pending, down by 13 from a week ago. And 7373 homes closed escrow in the last 30 days, up by 361 from a week ago. As a result, broader Maricopa County now has 3.3 months of inventory, based on this week’s numbers.

So let’s look a little closer at these numbers, since they seem absolutely stunning, and find out just what is selling today. 748 homes were sold as a short sale, meaning the lender had to agree to less than a full pay off on the loan, rather than accept the reality the home was going into foreclosure. 4893 of the sales were bank owned homes (foreclosures). The remaining 1732 homes were “normal” sales, presumably not under duress.

From a price standpoint, 3840 homes sold below $100,000. Another 1588 sold between $100k and $200k. Then another 1323 homes sold between $200k and $350k. Only 622 homes sold for a price above $350k, which is roughly where the FHA loan limit currently stands.

Again, there simply cannot be any doubt that price and available financing are what is driving the Phoenix real estate market today. Now, let’s look at the 12 city by city breakdown.

City	Homes For Sale	Sales Pending	Sold	Months of Inventory
Phoenix	6138 265	3205 7	2373 48	2.6
Scottsdale	3471 91	551 26	356 30	9.8
Mesa	2114 86	971 4	672 45	3.1
Chandler	1118 113	562 2	331 32	3.4
Glendale	1116 82	720 7	534 34	2.1
Goodyear	575 18	337 7	205 10	2.8
Tempe	426 7	153 7	80 7	5.3
Laveen	352 6	219 0	114 4	3.1
Cave Creek	432 1	66 8	54 14	8
Fountain Hills	381 14	66 3	48 5	7.9
Paradise Valley	549 5	31 5	12 2	45.8
Carefree	141 4	8 0	4 2	35.3

*All data comes via ARMLS, and is presumed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. All numbers represent single family detached homes only. Condos, townhouses, timeshares, vacant land lots, and manufactured homes are not represented in these numbers. All sold properties were sold in the last 30 days.

The following trend indicators are relative to the previous week’s update:

Positive move upward Positive move downward

Negative move downward Negative move upward

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{ 3 comments }

1 Benjamin Ficker May 18, 2009 at 3:06 pm: The numbers really are impressive. How much of the increase in sales though is due to seasonality? Is the trend in sales similar over the time period the last few years?
2 Steve Belt May 18, 2009 at 7:42 pm: Hi Ben-

There is naturally a seasonal uptick in sales every spring here in Phoenix. However, the last 2 years were not as strong as what we are seeing now. Demand for these lower priced homes resembles the frenzy of 2005, to be honest.

Looking at a normal demand curve for Phoenix area real estate. Demand picks up around Jan 15, then again Feb 15, then continues to build into May/June on into mid-July. There it levels off, before falling noticeably around September 15, and gets to it’s lowest point during the holidays.

Seasonal visitors, corporate hiring, and the school year all play a significant factor in the demand curve.
3 Benjamin Ficker May 18, 2009 at 10:31 pm: That’s what I figured. Its the same up here in Portland OR (Though I am starting my AZ real estate career in 2 weeks). It definitely seems like the time to be buying in Phoenix. Even if prices fell 10-20% more, you can already buy properties that provide positive cash flow.