Ok, yesterday I had some extreme examples of irrational housing prices, so today, I wanted to come a little closer to center.  A little closer to what the average home owner may be feeling is happening to the value of their own home.  Again, with a couple of specific examples.

North Phoenix Example

This is a Brady floor plan, built by DR Horton in the Dynamite Mountain Ranch subdivision, which is found in North Phoenix, near I-17 & Happy Valley Road.

Sold: 1/29/2003  $199,885

Sold: 9/15/2006  $420,000

Sold: 4/17/2009  $210,000

Size: 2313 Square Feet, 3 bedroom, plus den, 2 bath, granite counters, maple cabinets, pool

DR Horton built this floor plan in a number of locations throughout the valley, but Dynamite Mountain Ranch is a personal favorite of mine (I manage a number of rental properties there, along with owning 2 rental properties there myself).  The home’s layout results in a very practical and efficient use of space, with each room being large enough to breath in, yet no room being excessively large or tiny.

When this home sold last month, it was as a foreclosure.  All of the appliances were still in the home along with the cabinets (not always the case with a foreclosure).  The flooring was in good shape (mix of tile and carpet) and the walls were custom painted throughout, which was also in good shape.  Oh, and I shouldn’t forget the pebble tec swimming pool with water feature in the back yard.  Overall, this home was actually in better condition, than when it was purchased new (when considering the addition of the pool and painting).

North Scottsdale Example

This is another Brady model by DR Horton, but this time in the Scottsdale subdivision of Horseman’s Park near McDowell Mountain Ranch.

Sold: 5/23/2003 $338,729

Refinanced in 2005 & 2006

Sold: 3/26/2009 $385,000

Size: 2313 Square Feet, 3 bedroom, plus den, 2 bath, granite counters, maple cabinets

Once again, this home was in pretty good condition, without any glaring deficiencies like missing appliances and/or cabinets.  As you can see, Scottsdale’s prices are higher than Phoenix for an equivalent home, but the price changes over the last 6 years are not much different.

Again, for this look at prices, I chose what I consider to be average homes for the area.  These are not homes way on the outskirts of town, miles and miles from a freeway.  These are both homes within a few minutes of major shopping and dining, freeways, employment centers, and entertainment venues.

(PS- McDowell Mountain Ranch currently has a woefully limited supply of quality homes for sale.  If you are a home owner in McDowell Mountain Ranch, with a well cared for, move-in ready home, that is considering selling, you will find there is actually pretty strong demand for your home.)

Is there a point here?

Hopefully the point here is obvious.  Once again, I’m only showing a couple of homes, but these sales are very typical of subdivisions sales results throughout the central part of the valley, rather than the outlying areas.  The majority of homes selling today are selling for prices approximately equal to their price back in 2003.  Nearly all of the massive run up in valuation that was experienced in the 2004-2006 time period has at this point been wiped away.

Looking for a deal, when it comes to buying a home today?  Take out your box of darts.  Stand opposite a map of Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs.  Put a blind fold on.  Throw a dart at the map.  Wherever it lands, that’s a good deal.

Copyright ©2007-2009 Phoenix Area Real Estate Blog by Steve Belt. This feed is intended for personal, non-commercial use only.

There are currently 66 active properties for sale in the Phoenix subdivision of Dynamite Mountain Ranch, an increase of one home from a month ago.  The average asking price per over all 66 properties is $152/sq foot, which is down from $155/sq foot one month ago, continuing the trend toward lower asking prices. 

*data as of 11/29/2007, via ARMLS

As of today, 2 properties are in a sale pending status:

*data as of 11/29/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 30 days, 2 properties closed escrow:

*data as of 11/29/2007, via ARMLS

The trend toward inventory levels remaining relatively flat is a good trend.  However, as you can see, the trend toward very slow sales is also continuing.  If this trend of 2 homes sold per month continues, Dynamite Mountain Ranch would have 33 months of supply, which is significantly worse than the great Phoenix market average of 18 months of supply. 

Copyright ©2007-2009 Phoenix Area Real Estate Blog by Steve Belt. This feed is intended for personal, non-commercial use only.

There are currently 65 active properties for sale in the Phoenix subdivision of Dynamite Mountain Ranch, equal to the 65 properties one month ago.  The average asking price per square foot over all 65 properties is $155/sq foot, which is down from $161/sq foot one month ago.  The price per square foot reduction is the result of a few sellers making significant price reductions.   

*data as of 10/27/2007, via ARMLS

As of today, 5 properties are in a sale pending status:

*data as of 10/27/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 33 days, 1 property has closed escrow:

*data as of 10/27/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 33 days, 14 properties have been taken off the market.  These homes had an average asking price per square foot of $163.

While inventory did not reduce in the last month, it is encouraging that it also did not increase.  Sales are still very slow in comparison to the number of homes on the market, which implies that buyers still do not find the asking prices compelling enough to make a purchase.

Copyright ©2007-2009 Phoenix Area Real Estate Blog by Steve Belt. This feed is intended for personal, non-commercial use only.

There are currently 65 active properties for sale in the Phoenix community of Dynamite Mountain Ranch, down from 76 properties one month ago. The average asking price per square foot over all 65 properties is $161/sq foot, which is also down from $163/sq foot one month ago.

*data as of 9/24/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 30 days, 5 properties have moved to sale pending:

*data as of 9/24/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 30 days, 1 property has closed escrow:

*data as of 9/24/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 30 days, 19 properties have been taken off the market. These homes had an average asking price per square foot of $162.

The trend toward lower asking prices, along with lower selling prices in Dynamite Mountain Ranch is still continuing, as a result of supply being so much larger than existing demand. However, the reduction in inventory this last month is definitely a positive move.

There are currently 76 active properties for sale in Dynamite Mountain Ranch. The average asking price per square foot over all 76 properties is $163/sq foot.

*data as of 8/22/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 30 days, 2 properties have moved to sale pending:

*data as of 8/22/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 30 days, 2 properties have closed escrow:

*data as of 8/22/2007, via ARMLS

In the last 30 days, 15 days have been taken off the market. These homes had an average asking price per square foot of $168.

The trend toward lower asking prices, along with lower selling prices in Dynamite Mountain Ranch is still continuing, as a result of supply being so much larger than existing demand.